The MLS Cup Playoffs officially kick off tonight. The Wild Card round is over, and the bracket is set. Ahead of the festivities, we’re breaking down five teams who could pull off a surprise run in the tournament.
1 Minnesota United
The Loons have been one of the hottest teams in the West since the summer
Why they will make a deep run
Under first year head coach Eric Ramsay, 
Minnesota United have been among the hottest teams in MLS over the second half of the season. A home run of a transfer window has fueled a run of seven wins from their last 10 matches, with new signing Kelvin Yeboah’s seven goals since arriving in MLS behind only 
Inter Miami’s Luis Suarez and 
New York City FC’s Alonso Martínez among MLS strikers. He immediately looks like one of the best strikers in MLS, and is the kind of consistent scorer you need to make a deep postseason run.
Since the summer, they’ve created 16.73 expected goals, behind just 
Columbus Crew SC, 
Portland Timbers and 
LA Galaxy. They’re a sneaky-good attacking team.
They’re balanced, too. Since the summer transfer window, they’ve conceded just eight goals (behind only 
Seattle Sounders) and allowed just 9.23 expected goals (the fewest in MLS). Solid at the back and able to create going forward is a great combination.
Why they won’t make a deep run
Every team in the West is going to have to play one of the Los Angeles teams in Los Angeles at some point. None of them would be the favorites. If the bracket were different and Minnesota were somehow able to avoid the Galaxy or LAFC until the Conference Final round, they’re good enough to make a run that deep.
As things stand, they’ll likely play the Galaxy if they advance past 
Real Salt Lake in Round One, and that’s a brutal matchup for any team.
2 Charlotte FC
The Crown’s combination of elite defense and a dangerous transition attack has all the makings of a perfect tournament team
Why they will make a deep run
In a lot of ways, 
Charlotte FC are the Platonic ideal of a plucky underdog. The North Carolina side have the best defensive record in the Eastern Conference, allowing just 1.09 goals per game.
Their center back duo of Adilson Malanda and Andrew Privett have been two of the best in the league for the full season, and the addition of USMNT defender Tim Ream (albeit in a different left back role) has added another elite MLS defender to an already solid backline. Their true defensive strength is goalkeeper Kristijan Kahlina, who has put together one of the best individual seasons in MLS history.
According to American Soccer Analysis, Kahlina has had the second-best season since 2013 in terms of goals minus expected goals (a measure of how many goals a ‘keeper has prevented), denying opponents 10.47 goals in 2024. Only Đorđe Petrović’s 2022 season was better.
Going forward they’re not nearly as adept, but striker Patrick Agyemang has had a breakout campaign. The 2023 SuperDraft pick has scored 10 goals in just over 2,000 minutes this season, ending the year with 0.50 expected goals per match (eighth among MLS strikers with over 2,000 minutes).
While Karol Swiderski is often the preferred option from the start, Agyemang is one of the biggest game changers off the bench in these playoffs. Summer signing Pep Biel has quietly put together some of the best underlying numbers in MLS since his arrival.
Add into the mix the fact that 
Orlando City SC have only won seven of their 17 home matches this season, and Charlotte should head into Sunday night with plenty of confidence.
Why they won’t make a deep run
For one thing, they don’t score enough goals. Their 1.34 goals per game is tied for the fewest among playoff teams, and aside from Agyemang, they don’t have a standout in attack. They may not concede many goals, but they’ll have to score against an elite team at some point if they are to make a deep run.
If they get past Orlando in Round One, they’ll likely face off against Inter Miami in the next. That’s enough to put pause on any thoughts of a deep playoff run.
3 Seattle Sounders
Brian Schmetzer’s Seattle have mastered the art of getting hot at the right time
Why they will make a deep run
Defense wins championships, baby! The Seattle Sounders are the best defense in MLS, allowing just 1.03 goals per game this year. They’re even better at home, conceding just 14 goals in 17 matches. No one in MLS has been better. With a favorable matchup against a 
Houston Dynamo team who control the ball but struggle to score goals, they’re the clear favorites in Round One.
Jordan Morris is having somewhat of a resurgence as a No. 9, scoring 13 goals. Albert Rusnák has been even better, with 10 goals and 16 assists while serving as Seattle’s creative hub. This team has a proven core with plenty of playoff experience, and they know what it takes to win important matches.
Why they won’t make a deep run
Simply put, they don’t score enough. Their 51 goals in regular season play average out to just 1.5 per game, and while their defense is elite, they don’t leave themselves much room for error with sub-par production in the final third.
They pinned a lot of hopes on Pedro de la Vega as an offseason DP signing, and he has never looked the part in the rare matches he’s managed to stay healthy. It’s really hard to beat elite teams without production from DP attackers. They can’t hang with 
LAFC, LA Galaxy or Minnesota United in a shootout. That’s concerning.
Even more concerning is their record against LAFC, who will likely await them in the next round. The Sounders haven’t won a match against the Black & Gold in 10 attempts. Eight of those matches were losses. That’s what those in the business call a red flag.
4 New York City FC
Having an elite goalscorer is a recipe for success, and Alonso Martínez is just that
Why they will make a deep run
For all their success as a possession-based team, New York City FC are at their best when they go direct and attack space quickly. That seems like a good strategy against 
FC Cincinnati, whose backline is absolutely decimated and struggle to defend in the open field. The Pigeons appear to be a great matchup against Cincinnati, who are limping into the playoffs with just one win from their last five.
Santiago Rodríguez can be among the most dynamic attackers in the league, although he’s struggled for consistency. Positional changes haven’t helped him find his form, although Nick Cushing’s decision to slot 37-year-old Maxi Moralez back in as the No. 10 upon his return from injury has added a bit more stability and maturity to the second-youngest squad in MLS.
As with other teams on this list, though, having an in-form goalscorer is often the difference maker. Alonso Martínez is tied with Luis Suárez and Lionel Messi for the most goals in MLS since returning from the Leagues Cup break, not bad company for any attacker to be in. In games as tight as playoff contests are bound to be, knowing where your goals come from is irreplaceable.
Why they won’t make a deep run
While Cincinnati are beatable at home, Columbus Crew SC aren’t. They’ve lost just three times at Lower.com Field and would await NYCFC in the next round, barring an all-timer of an upset against New York Red Bulls.
The Pigeons have only won four matches on the road, and their production tends to plummet on the road. They’ve scored 35 times at home and only 19 in away matches, a bad recipe for success against the most complete team in MLS. There are only two or three teams in MLS who should feel confident about their ability to beat Columbus in Columbus. NYCFC aren’t one of them.