Ahead of Euro 2024 in Germany this summer, Newcastle legend Alan Shearer used his insight as an esteemed former professional, and current BBC pundit and commentator, to try and offer some predictions around what might happen at the finals.
Displaying admirable optimism at the start, Shearer unfortunately let that take over with a number of his suggestions – yet the realism started to creep in towards the latter stages of the tournament and Gareth Southgate’s (at times) conservative style. With that in mind, here are his comments on winners, losers, and everything in between.
Optimism at first from the Newcastle icon
Sourced from his various columns with different sites and companies, Shearer attempted to provide footballing acumen for most of England’s Group C matches. Ahead of the opening challenge against Serbia in Gelsenkirchken, the Newcastle United and Blackburn Rovers legend said:
“England should have far too much for them in forward positions, so I would say England to win by two or three. Opening games are never easy, a lot of the time they’re always cagey affairs, but I would think England can score two or three and win.”
Reality: Serbia 0-1 England
Serbia proved to be a lot more difficult to break down than Shearer predicted. Moreover, old English habits crept in. After Jude Bellingham’s emphatic headed opener, the men in white sat back and, although nearly notched a second with Harry Kane being denied brilliantly by Pedrag Rajkovic, they didn’t have it all their own way. Jordan Pickford had to make an important late save from Dusan Vlahovic.
The next game he provided comment for, was the match-up with Denmark. Given the Danes had not only won the competition before, but also featured deep in the last edition, facing England in the Euro 2020 semi-final, Shearer still exuded confidence:
“I think we’ll score at least a couple of goals and I can see us getting a 2-0 or 3-0 victory.”
Reality: Denmark 1-1 England
England were not their most dynamic against Denmark, and they ultimately missed the opportunity to qualify for the next stage at that point, with a meagre showing in a 1-1 draw. Journalist Phil McNulty branded the side as “fortunate to take a draw from a dismal display”, as Harry Kane’s opener was cancelled out by a superb low and long-range drive from Morten Hjulmand.
While comments on the Slovenia fixture couldn’t be found, Shearer’s thoughts after that 0-0 draw that saw both teams qualify for the knockouts were loud and clear, and shifted his own outlook ahead of the subsequent game against Slovakia. Before that match, he noted that while he thought England would need to prevail, they’d also need to see improvement:
“England (win) without doubt. I can see it being a convincing win, I hope so. This is the time they’ll put their foot on the gas. They’ll show a lot more energy, they’ll show a lot more confidence. This is where the tournament will start for England.”
Reality: England 2-1 Slovakia (AET)
In contrast to Shearer’s hopeful comments, England were seconds away from an embarrassing exit. Ivan Schranz had opened the scoring in the 25th minute with his poke past Pickford, yet Bellingham stepped up to provide some bicycle-kick magic to keep the Three Lions going.
In extra-time, Harry Kane’s header put the game out of Slovakia’s reach, but again, questions arose consistently about the pace and urgency in England’s play.
In an almost comical image of a man subjected to dire England football that sees a star-studded team splutter over the line, Shearer’s confidence took a serious hit ahead of the quarter-final against Switzerland:
“This is a really tough one to call because England have been really poor and they’ve just done enough in the end. (…) I’m going to go for England. I do think it could go to extra time and penalties.”
Reality: England 1-1 Switzerland (5-3 on penalties)
Clearly, this wilting optimism meant the ex-forward’s prediction was the best so far. Switzerland were a technically proficient outfit with great cohesion and the odd star sprinkled through the mix. This time, Breel Donald Embolo was the problem, as he snuck in at the back post with only 15 minutes remaining. Bukayo Saka then produced a moment of individual brilliance from out on the right-wing, firing into the bottom left corner from outside the box.
A flawless set of England penalties re-emphasised the importance of Pickford’s spot-kick save against Manuel Akanji after a stale extra-time, and saw the team progress to the semis. Cole Palmer, Jude Bellingham, Saka and Ivan Toney were all successful before substitute Trent Alexander-Arnold hammered home the decisive penalty.
Next up, the Netherlands in the last four. Shearer had honed his positivity down to more logical levels:
“It could be a stressful, long evening again but I think England will just edge this one.”
Reality: Netherlands 1-2 England
Shearer had hit his stride in the latter stages of the tournament, as it was indeed, a stressful, long evening. Xavi Simons opened the scoring in emphatic fashion in the seventh minute. Harry Kane then pulled one back from the spot after Denzel Dumfries was deemed to have gone studs up on the Bayern man.
Then, as the game looked set for the drama of extra-time, substitute Ollie Watkins provided a moment he’ll never forget, turning and shooting on the right side of the box, finding the bottom-left corner as the clock just ticked into the ’90’ territory.
Tournament Prediction: England or France to win
Back in June, at the tournament’s beginning, Shearer was asked by BBC Sport to name his outright winner. Confidently, he spoke of the team he played 63 times for, scoring 30 goals:
“England can go all the way. This is the greatest chance we’ve had in a long time.
“If it’s not going to be England, then I would have to go with France. With some of the talent and experience they have, they will be really tough to beat.”
Reality: Spain Champions, France semi-finalists
England, of course, did progress through the tournament to the showpiece final in Berlin’s Olympiastadion. France didn’t, succumbing to Spain 2-1 in their semi-final clash in Munich. However, England faltered at the last hurdle as Nico Williams and Mikel Oyarzabal scored either side of Cole Palmer to take the trophy back to Spain for the record fourth time.
Shearer quotes retrieved from BetFair, BBC Sport.