Real Madrid return from the international break to a tricky Saturday contest at Real Sociedad in a La Liga match that also precedes the start of the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday (at home vs. German side VfB Stuttgart). Kickoff on Saturday is at 3 p.m. EDT in the USA (8 p.m. BST in UK).
It’s a particularly busy part of the calendar for Carlo Ancelotti’s men with seven matches in 22 days, and complicating matters is a number of key absences due to injury.
Real Madrid have already stumbled on the road in the early part of the season, dropping points at Mallorca and Las Palmas, and Real Sociedad will present a very different challenge as one of the most competitive teams in recent La Liga seasons.
This game in San Sebastián could prove particularly appealing to certain types of bettors given the betting market is predictably leaning one way, especially in light of Real Sociedad’s early-season struggles. It may prove an opportunity for a contrarian play.
Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid Betting Odds
Odds are calling for a closely fought affair between two of La Liga’s finest
Below are the latest matchday odds courtesy of Bet365. The market seems to be shying away from the “over 2.5 goals” total, with “Both Teams To Score” (BTTS) at -110 on both yes and no.
So it should be a tight match, which makes Real Sociedad — a team that has finished no worse than 6th place in each of the last five La Liga seasons — one to consider buying low in this instance given their current bottom-half position in the table.
- Real Sociedad to win: +350
- Draw: +260
- Real Madrid to win: -125
- Over/Under 2.5 total goals: +100 / -125
- Both Teams To Score (Yes/No): -110 / -110
- Spread (Asian Handicap): Real Madrid -0.75 goals (Real Sociedad +0.75 goals)
- Goal Line: 2.5 goals
- Kylian Mbappe to score: +140
Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid Prediction
The set-up for this match is not particularly favorable for Los Merengues
Real Sociedad are not as bad as the recent results have indicated, although it’s definitely been a slow ramp-up, and injuries have not helped.
But La Real will come out of their funk at some point, and this sets up as an ideal scenario against an opponent in Real Madrid which is far from its best despite the big names that will adorn its front line.
As Kylian Mbappé will surely find out in his years playing for Madrid, a trip to the Anoeta is no vacation, and it takes suffering through 90 minutes to achieve a result. This Real Madrid team is still a work in progress and not yet at the stage where they can simply gut out results with a shorthanded squad. There’s more work to do.
Prediction: Real Sociedad 1-1 Real Madrid
Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid Picks and Best Bets
These betting ideas are focused on a Real Sociedad turnaround
Real Madrid have attacking firepower, but Real Sociedad will likely set up in a five-man backline which should help contain Ancelotti’s squad. Add to that the fact that the visitors’ midfield is severely shorthanded with 39-year-old Luka Modric and attacker Brahim Diaz likely in the mix, allowing Real Sociedad transition opportunities.
Could Mbappé or Vinicius Jr. singlehandedly decide the match? Of course, that’s always a possibility. But Real Sociedad will not make it easy and should be in this game.
Real Sociedad Double Chance (Win or Tie): +100
No doubt that the results for Real Sociedad haven’t been what they expected thus far in 2024-25, but there have been changes in personnel, injuries, and the disruption of the September international window that have wreaked havoc with the squad. With two weeks to prepare for the match, manager Imanol Alguacil (photo above) has had plenty of time to design a game plan against an opponent that is decimated and with one eye on Tuesday’s Champions League debut.
It’s a unique opportunity to right the ship, and this Real Sociedad team has the quality to do it, and the passionate home support to help push them there. Since Alguacil took over in late 2018, Real Sociedad has earned results in 7 of 13 matches against Real Madrid in all competitions. And they have played them tight with only three of the six losses coming by more than a goal.
Real Sociedad over 4.5 corners: +100
The home side is sure to enjoy a fair share of spells in Madrid’s half, as Real Madrid is not likely to dominate this game from beginning to end. Even without Brais Mendez, they have skillful enough midfielders to progress the ball and serve it up to the forwards who like to play direct, including new Icelandic target Orri Oskarsson, who should play a role at some point in this game. All the above should help rack up the corners along the way.
Orri Oskarsson to score or assist: +200
If the case is being made that Real Sociedad will threaten the defending La Liga champions, then it’s not outlandish to consider a player who could be on the end of the attacking transition movements. If he gets the chance — and it’s always prudent to wait for lineups to be released before putting in player-specific wagers — the 20-year-old club record signing will be eager to leave his mark in a big spot. He should prove a handful if he gets the minutes.