The Ballon d’Or is without any question the biggest and most prestigious individual prize in world football. The award, handed out annually by France Football, is given to the best player over the previous season. The yearly gala has been dominated by Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi for the best part of the last two decades, with the two legendary footballers winning it in 13 of the last 15 editions.
Messi has picked up a record eight Ballon d’Or awards. But, with both halves of the duopoly missing out on the shortlist this time around for the first time since 2003, the throne is vacant. It is exciting, then, that a new era begins as of this month. An heir to Messi’s title is out there, but who will be the first to steal the limelight?
YouTuber Maestro has simulated every winner of the Ballon d’Or from 2024 to 2037 using EA Sports FC 25, with the full results analysed below.
Erling Haaland (7)
2024, 2025, 2026, 2028, 2031, 2033, 2034
Last year, there was an understated sense of anticipation that Erling Haaland might dethrone Messi sooner than expected, especially after the towering Norwegian racked up two hat-tricks, 27 goals, and 5 assists in just 31 Premier League appearances. However, with the Argentine maestro now out of the equation, EA FC 25 predicts that the 24-year-old will swiftly make up for lost time in his quest for the top spot.
Not only is he forecasted to win this year’s award ahead of Rodri, Jude Bellingham and his Real Madrid Co, but the simulation also sees him picking up seven golden balls in total, which would topple Cristiano Ronaldo in the process. It’s a somewhat wild prediction that one player will dominate this much, especially as many are suggesting the race for the award year upon year could be more open to outside claims. However, given Haaland’s extraterrestrial goalscoring nature, which once only seemed possible in a video game, then perhaps it’s fitting that EA Sports are fighting in his corner for this one.
Lamine Yamal (4)
2029, 2035, 2036, 2037
Throughout the sixteen-year Messi/Ronaldo hegemony, the key differences between the two was that, while Ronaldo was the athletic talisman, Messi was the more well-rounded creator. It is reasonable, then, that simulations tell a similar narrative unfolding between Haaland and Lamine Yamal. But with the latter of the duo being much younger, at just 17 years old, his time at the top will come a little later.
Out of the next 14 awards on offer, EA FC 25 predicts the young Barcelona sensation – who won Young Player of the Tournament at Euro 2024 when he helped his nation to their record-breaking fourth competition triumph with one goal and four assists – will win four Ballon d’Or trophies, grabbing his first in 2029 when he’ll still only be about 22 years old. They are banking on him winning it three years on the trot between 2035 and 2037, and with him being 30 for the latter, there will always be time for more after the simulation ends.
Vinicius Junior (3)
2027, 2030, 2032
Vinicius Jr was Real Madrid’s star man during the 2023-24 campaign alongside Bellingham, playing a pivotal role as the Spanish giants won both La Liga and the Champions League. No Real Madrid player scored more goals during the Champions League campaign than the gifted South American winger, and with France football having had a longstanding history of picking attacking players, he is the outright favourite this year.
A lack of a Copa America hasn’t dented his chances in the eyes of the bookmakers, but that hasn’t stopped EA FC 25 from predicting him to fall short this year, alongside 2025 and 2026, as they have forecasted him to finally get his hands on the prize in 2027, before then achieving the feat in 2030 and 2032. If so, he will be the first Brazilian to win the Ballon d’Or since Kaka in 2007, and with 2030 falling on a World Cup year, the prediction could point towards triumph for Brazil, too.
Those Who Missed Out
Kylian Mbappe, Rodri & Jude Bellingham
With Kylian Mbappe’s not-so surprising move to Real Madrid finally materialising over the summer, many believed football’s most valuable team would kick on and continue to rake in shed loads of Champions League titles, with this then coinciding with the rise of the Frenchman, ultimately handing him a Ballon d’Or or two on a silver platter.
However, EA Sports have clearly seen something that makes them think otherwise, as the simulation failed to predict Mbappe winning the award at all over the next 15 years. This came as the biggest surprise from the forecast, while Jude Bellingham also missed out, despite the two being the best at their club in a team hellbent on more success.
Rodri also missed out, and while he’s a little older than other entries on the simulation, it’s a shame he doesn’t appear to be in the reckoning for this year’s ultimate prize. As a holding midfielder, he is already at a disadvantage. But he was his club and country’s most important player as Manchester City won the Premier League and Spain won Euro 2024.