Portugal have to move on quickly from their shock 2-0 defeat to Georgia in the final Group F game, as they now prepare to face Group C’s third-place qualifiers Slovenia. Despite Roberto Martinez’s talented squad, they’ve rarely clicked into top gear. The group saw a solid victory over Turkey in between a late comeback against the Czech Republic and Wednesday’s huge upset at the hands of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Georges Mikautadze. That said, Cristiano Ronaldo and his teammates are still big favourites to reach the quarter-finals and set up a tie with either France or Belgium.
Slovenia drew all three of their games in Group C to finish third, and progress into the knockouts of a major tournament for the first time. They arrive as the fourth-ranked third-placed team. Admirably, they avoided defeat against both England and Denmark, yet those two sides were far from their best in a monotonous group that also saw Serbia lay waste to a talented front line.
Read on as GIVEMESPORT looks at what the experts are saying about this match, and just what may happen.
Portugal vs Slovenia: Match Information | |
|---|---|
Date | Mon, July 1 |
Kick-off | 20:00 BST |
Stadium | Waldstadion |
City | Frankfurt, Germany |
TV coverage | BBC One |
Portugal vs Slovenia – Form Guide
Portugal win twice as Slovenia remain unbeaten
Portugal began their campaign with a somewhat unconvincing 2-1 win over the Czech Republic courtesy of a very late winner from Francisco Conceicao. Martinez’s side recovered well to secure qualification in the next game thanks to a 3-0 win over Turkey. Bruno Fernandes was the key to their performance, as the Manchester United midfielder had 55 touches and scored the third goal for Portugal. The final game against Georgia did raise a few questions as they were beaten 2-0 by the minnows. That said, Portugal did rest and rotate key players before the knockout phases.
In their last five games, Portugal have won three and only lost twice. They haven’t recorded a draw since the UEFA Nations League meeting with Spain in 2022. Interestingly, two out of the last three victories for Portugal have been 3-0 wins.
Portugal remained unbeaten following 10 victories from 10 games in qualifying for this tournament. They scored 36 goals and only conceded twice. Martinez’s side even spent an entire year unbeaten before they were eventually defeated by Monday’s opponents, Slovenia, in March.
Slovenia are one of the few teams in the competition that are still unbeaten. Slovenia began their campaign with two consecutive 1-1 draws against Denmark and Serbia respectively. In their final group game against England, Slovenia battled brilliantly to secure a 0-0 draw to remain unbeaten and be one the best third-placed teams in the competition.
In their three group games, Slovenia have only conceded two goals, despite only scoring two. In their last five games, they are unbeaten – having won once and drawn four of the five games played. Interestingly, Slovenia are also on a nine-match unbeaten run, having last suffered a defeat against Denmark in qualifying for the finals.
Slovenia have proven that they are generally a very difficult team to break down. The last time they were beaten by a scoreline of three goals or more was in 2022, when they lost 4-1 to Serbia. Three of their last four results have ended in a 1-1 draw, whilst they’ve only kept one clean sheet and that was against England. The last victory for Slovenia was a 2-1 win over Armenia.
Portugal vs Slovenia Picks
GIVEMESPORT presents our picks with analysis
Result
Portugal enter this fixture as favourites and will be looking to make the most of key, previously-rested players to make up for their last defeat to Georgia. Slovenia may be a tricky side to break down with a fine record to boot, yet the general consensus is that unless they can conjure up an historic performance, the Portuguese should progress. Footy Accumulators predict a 2-0 win to Cristiano Ronaldo’s side.
As per OddsChecker, the win market suggests Portugal have a 4/9 chance of victory. A draw in 90 minutes sits at 19/5, while a Slovenian win is 8/1.
Head to head history and results
The two sides have only met once in their entire history and that was earlier this year. Slovenia were 2-0 winners thanks to goals from Adam Gnedza Cerin and Timi Max Elsnik.
Over/Under
In terms of over and under bets, the stats from the group stages for each side can reflect trends. The table below shows the corners, fouls, cards, and match goals, among other stats.
Over/Under | Portugal | Slovenia | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Stat | v Czechia | v Turkey | v Georgia | v Denmark | v Serbia | v England |
Match goals | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Shots | 19 | 12 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
Shots on target | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
Team fouls | 6 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 11 |
Cards | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Corners | 13 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
Player bets
When making player bets, it’s worth considering the recent injury news as much as form.
The Selecao das Quinas have looked at their best in a 4-2-3-1 setup, which earned the 3-0 win over Turkey with both Joao Palhinha and Vitinha anchoring the midfield. Fulham’s Palhinha should return after being one of seven players rested against Georgia, while Rafael Leao is back from a ban to take up his spot on the left flank.
Matjaz Kek has kept faith with the same starting line-up throughout Slovenia’s tournament, a deep 4-4-2 spearheaded by RB Leipzig striker Benjamin Sesko.
Oddschecker highlights these players in the first-scorer conversation: Cristiano Ronaldo (14/5), Goncalo Ramos (5/1), Diogo Jota (11/2), Bruno Fernandes (13/2), Joao Felix (13/2), Rafael Leao (13/20), Francisco Conceicao (7/1), Pedro Neto (9/1), Bernardo Silva (10/1), Ferreira Vitinha (12/1), Benjamin Sesko (12/1), No Goalscorer (12/1), Andraz Sporar (14/1), Zan Vipotnik (16/1), Josip Ilicic (16/1).
Once again, Portugal are 4/9 to win, while Slovenia are 8/1. To qualify, Portugal’s odds sit at 1/6, while Slovenia’s are 9/2.
Stats courtesy of Fotmob, Oddschecker, Footy Accumulators – accurate as of 28/06/24