Real Madrid will begin defense of their Champions League title on Tuesday when they welcome last year’s Bundesliga runners-up, surprise package VfB Stuttgart, on the opening matchday of the new-look competition.
Carlo Ancelotti’s side has not enjoyed a perfect start to the 2024-25 season, but they’ve managed to pick up results and get new signing Kylian Mbappe on track. They’ll be getting the influential Jude Bellingham and Aurelien Tchouameni back from injury, which will be a major boost after struggling in a 2-0 win over Real Sociedad on Saturday.
Stuttgart are in mid-table in the Bundesliga after just three games, and juggling both Bundesliga and Champions League competitions this season won’t be easy. It will be a test for up-and-coming 42-year-old star manager Sebastian Hoeneß, who has received the plaudits for Stuttgart’s sudden rise after years battling relegation. The team has two dangerous forwards (Deniz Undav and Ermedin Demirovic) and a rising star in French attacking midfielder Enzo Millot to keep an eye on.
This is the first of eight opening league phase matches for both teams, with the goal being to rack up as many points as possible to finish as high as possible in the Champions League single table. The top eight teams qualify directly to the Round of 16, while those that finish between 9th and 24th place earn a spot in a playoff round that determines the rest of the Round of 16 qualifiers. Real Madrid are aiming for a top-eight finish, while Stuttgart would be thrilled with a 9th-24th placement. Teams in 25th spot or lower are eliminated.
Real Madrid vs Stuttgart Betting Odds
How many goals can the German side score in the Bernabeu?
The betting market predicts a Real Madrid victory in a high-scoring game — both teams scoring — with the goal line set at 3.5. But the market also acknowledges the gap between these two teams in a spread (handicap) that clocks in at -1.5 in favor of Real Madrid.
The way bettors tackle this game when it comes to goals total and the spread (handicap) will ultimately come down to whether there’s conviction that Stuttgart can replicate their Bundesliga scoring exploits against one of the best teams in the world.
Real Madrid vs Stuttgart Odds | |||
|---|---|---|---|
Decimal Odds | Fractional Odds | American Odds | |
Real Madrid to win | 1.30 | 50/167 | -334 |
Draw | 6.25 | 21/4 | +525 |
Stuttgart to win | 8.00 | 7/1 | +700 |
Over/Under 2.5 goals | 1.33 / 3.40 | 1/3, 12/5 | -300 / +240 |
Both Teams To Score (Yes/No) | 1.57 / 2.25 | 4/7, 5/4 | -175 / +125 |
Spread (Asian Handicap) | RMA -1.5 / STU +1.5 | RMA -1.5 / STU +1.5 | RMA -1.5 / STU +1.5 |
Goal Line | 3.5 goals | 3.5 goals | 3.5 goals |
Kylian Mbappe anytime scorer | 1.72 | 50/69 | -138 |
Vinicius Jr anytime scorer | 1.83 | 5/6 | -120 |
Real Madrid vs Stuttgart Prediction
Ancelotti’s men are on a different level and should show it on Tuesday
It’s been a while since Stuttgart have been on the big stage in the UEFA Champions League (2010), and it’s a tall order to expect them to pull off a result against the defending champions in their first game back to the competition.
Plus, Stuttgart have had an eventful start to the season, still integrating new players after losing two key starters (forward Serhou Giurassy and defender Waldermar Anton) to transfers over the summer. They’ve gone 1W-1D-1L in league play and dropped a heartbreaker in the German Super Cup on penalties. More importantly, they’ve allowed their opponents chances with six expected goals (xG) allowed in three matches and seven actual goals conceded.
Real Madrid have also been off to a slow start, but they have still managed to pick up results and create scoring opportunities along the way. You wouldn’t expect anything less of a squad as stacked as Los Merengues, who welcome back some key starters from injury. They’ll have too much quality for the German club on this day, which should make for a comfortable victory.
- Prediction: Real Madrid 2-0 Stuttgart
Real Madrid vs Stuttgart Picks and Best Bets
Three betting ideas for UEFA Champions League opener
There will be bettors who will be expecting a shootout in this game, and another segment of bettors who won’t. The following ideas are predicated on the latter scenario, with the expectation that any goals that are scored will come from Real Madrid.
Under 3.5 total goals: -110
Stuttgart and its manager Sebastian Hoeneß may espouse a fearless, direct style, but it would prove to be a real surprise if the German side could go into the Bernabeu for the club’s first Champions League match since 2010 and force Real Madrid to play the match on their terms. Real Madrid don’t usually allow games to be wide-open affairs.
Carlo Ancelotti’s men have a reputation for expertly managing matches, and if they get a lead, they can take the air out of the proceedings. Sweating the under 3.5 goals might prove less stressful in this instance than taking the other side of that total.
Real Madrid -1.5 spread: -107
With key players returning to the fold for this contest, Real Madrid should look a little more like themselves, which hasn’t been the case so far in La Liga play. Despite the bumps in the road, they have still managed to create decent chances in every match, with over 2.0 expected goals in their last four matches. With the quality of their forward line, they can be expected to convert their chances.
And they will get chances against Stuttgart. It’s a small sample size after just three Bundesliga matches, but Stuttgart have given up the fifth most non-penalty expected goals plus expected assisted goals. They gave up the third-fewest last season, a sign that they are still adjusting to losing influential center back Waldermar Anton, who moved to Borussia Dortmund in the summer.
Kylian Mbappe anytime scorer: -138
Mbappe arrived at Madrid for Champions League nights like Tuesday, and he will be doing everything in his power to have an influence on the game. It’s still early in the season, and his anytime scorer odds are still worth playing. Expect that to drastically change by season’s end.