England’s place in the last-16 of Euro 2024 has been confirmed despite the fact that Gareth Southgate’s men are yet to play their final group game. It has been a less than impressive performance so far from the Three Lions as they have stumbled to four points from their opening two games.
Despite the many criticisms surrounding both the displays on the pitch and the manager’s team selection, the 2021 finalists can go into Tuesday night’s game against Slovenia assured that they will move on in the competition thanks to the results in the final games in Group B.
Why England Are Through to Euro 2024 Knockout Stages
Defeat for Albania proves key for Southgate’s side
The reason for England’s qualification to the next round stems from the final standings in Group B. With Spain guaranteed first place, it was down to Croatia, Italy and Albania to fight for their futures. Going into Monday night’s fixtures, only one scenario would mean that Kane and co’s place in the competition was in jeopardy.
Had Albania pulled off a shock upset against Luis de la Fuente’s team and had Italy secured three points against Croatia, the defending champions would have finished as runners-up of Group B on six points, behind Spain because of their head-to-head record against La Roja. Albania would then have been third on four points and potentially on a higher goal difference than England.
This scenario would have meant that the pressure would have been on England to gain at least a point from their final group game to ensure their progression to the next round. However, Albania fell short, meaning the pre-tournament favourites are guaranteed to qualify as one of the best performing third-placed teams at a minimum.
It is also good news for France and the Netherlands, as they too have ensured their place in the next round, with both sides also on four points. Any time with more than three points and a goal difference superior than -3 will also make it through to the round of 16, so long as they finish third in their group.
How England Could Finish In Their Group
A win against Slovenia will guarantee top spot
Victory is crucial for England in their final group match of the tournament. If Southgate’s team defeats Slovenia, they will top the group regardless of the outcome of the group’s other fixture between Denmark and Serbia.
However, if England draw 1-1 and if Denmark win 1-0, both teams will have five points and identical records. In this case, the group winner would be determined by the better disciplinary record as per UEFA’s ruling. If England loses to Slovenia and either Serbia or Denmark wins, the 2021 finalists would drop to third place in the group.
Reports are indicating that Gareth Southgate will make one big change in order to secure England’s passage to the next phase. Trent Alexander-Arnold is set to be dropped from midfield, with Chelsea’s Conor Gallagher expected to take the Liverpudlian’s place.