Yankees vs. Mets Prediction, Odds, Picks – May 16

Trent Grisham and the New York Yankees take the field on Friday at Yankee Stadium against Tylor Megill, who is starting for the New York Mets. First pitch is at 7:05 p.m. ET for the first game of a three-game series. The Mets are +118 moneyline underdogs for this matchup with the favorite Yankees (-139). The Yankees are favored on the run line (-1.5). The total for the matchup has been set at 9 runs.

Here’s everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Yankees-Mets game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

Yankees vs. Mets Game Information & Odds

• When: Friday, May 16, 2025 at 7:05 p.m. ET
• Where: Yankee Stadium in The Bronx, New York
• How to watch on TV: YES and WPIX

Yankees vs. Mets Prediction

• Score Prediction: Yankees 5, Mets 4
• Total Prediction: Under 9 runs
• Win Probabilities: Yankees 54%, Mets 46%

Yankees vs. Mets Betting Insights

• The Yankees have won 23, or 63.9%, of the 36 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
• The Yankees have a record of 19-9, a 67.9% win rate, when they’re favored by -139 or more by bookmakers this season.
• The implied probability of a win from the Yankees, based on the moneyline, is 58.2%.
• The Mets have been victorious in five of the 10 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
• The Mets have yet to enter a game this year with longer moneyline odds than +118.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Mets have a 45.9% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.

Yankees Recent Betting Performance

• The Yankees went 6-4 across the 10 games they were favored on the moneyline in their last 10 matchups.
• In their last 10 outings — all had a set run total — the Yankees and their opponents combined to hit the over on the total six times.
• The Yankees have gone 4-6-0 against the spread over their past 10 games.

Yankees Recent Stats

Yankees Player Insights

• Aaron Judge paces the Yankees in home runs (15), runs batted in (41) and has racked up a team-high batting average of .412.
• Judge is first in home runs and first in RBI among all hitters in the majors.
• Judge has collected a hit in six games in a row. In his last 10 games he is batting .350 with four doubles, four home runs, six walks and eight RBIs.
• Paul Goldschmidt is batting .346 with 11 doubles, five home runs and 12 walks.
• Goldschmidt ranks 95th in home runs and 65th in RBI in the majors.
• Grisham has a double, a triple, 12 home runs and 14 walks while hitting .283.
• Ben Rice is batting .254 with 10 doubles, a triple, nine home runs and 15 walks.

Yankees Team Props

Mets Recent Betting Performance

• Over the past 10 games, the Mets have been underdogs twice and split those games 1-1.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Mets and their opponents have failed to hit the over seven times.
• The Mets have won three of their last 10 games against the spread.

Mets Recent Stats

Mets Player Insights

• Pete Alonso leads the lineup with a batting average of .311, and leads the Mets in home runs, with nine and runs batted in with 36.
• In all of MLB, Alonso is 24th in home runs and second in RBI.
• Juan Soto has nine doubles, eight home runs and 33 walks while batting .255.
• Soto ranks 33rd overall in homers and 83rd in RBI this season.
• Francisco Lindor has nine home runs, tops in the clubhouse.
• Brandon Nimmo is batting .226 with eight doubles, eight home runs and 13 walks.

Mets Team Props